Strategy

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Industry Growth Patterns 3: Why Startups Should be Aware of the Hype Curve or Hype Cycle

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Industry Growth Patterns 3: Why Startups Should be Aware of the Hype Curve or Hype Cycle

So far, we’ve covered the Bass Diffusion of Innovation and the Crossing the Chasm models. There is one more industry or market growth model startups should know – the Hype Curve or Hype Cycle. Remember you may get either little or great traction, not just because of what you’ve done, but also because of what is happening in the broader market.

The Hype Curve or Hype Cycle is one of our more recent models, coined by research firm Gartner. In this model, markets experience initial dramatic growth. However, after the initial excitement or hype wears off, sales of the product drop as only enthusiasts and hard-core users in a niche market continue to purchase it. If competitors survive, the market settles into a lower volume than at peak. It’s smaller but still a respectable and sustainable level of sales.

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Industry Growth Patterns 2: Why Startups Should be Aware of the Crossing the Chasm Model

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Industry Growth Patterns 2: Why Startups Should be Aware of the Crossing the Chasm Model

Last blogpost we suggested that, in addition to all of the decisions they are making within their startups, founders should also track market growth. Most industries or markets go through typical growth patterns. Understanding if you are in the middle of the market’s growth stage or on the tail end is important. First, it helps in forecasting sales. But it also helps for appropriately planning the promotional efforts you will need to make. When a market has had limited growth, it often takes having multiple companies trying to educate the market. With low growth, you need more investments to offset competition.

We’ve already talked about the Bass Diffusion of Innovation model. A second growth trajectory was dubbed Crossing the Chasm by author Geoffrey Moore (1991).In these markets, the early growth and promise of a market stall until some intervention enters the picture…

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Industry Growth Patterns 1: Why Startups Should be Aware of the Bass Diffusion of Innovation Model

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Industry Growth Patterns 1: Why Startups Should be Aware of the Bass Diffusion of Innovation Model

Planning startup strategy leaves founders with plenty to think about. Getting proof of concept, hiring first employees, and knowing when to pivot are some examples. But startups should not lose sight of what is going on at the industry level. Industry growth can be a significant source of opportunity for startups, but also create major debtbergs that can sink them.

What should founders pay attention to in terms of industry trends and growth of the overall market? Often entrepreneurs want to think about a market in terms of straight-line growth that is linear over time. Unfortunately, market growth is typically more varied and hard to predict—particularly early in an industry life cycle, or in disruptive markets. Monitoring and understanding the industry growth trajectory can help startups better allocate resources and avoid debtbergs across oceans.

Industry growth variants are many and complex, and each market follows its own trajectory. However, three models roughly characterize different growth patterns with important strategic implications. They include:

1. The Bass Diffusion of Innovation

2. Crossing the Chasm

3. The Hype Curve

This is Industry Growth Pattern 1 and we will review the Bass Diffusion of Innovation model.

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What Lessons can Entrepreneurs Learn from Gold Rushes, Pickaxes, and the Titanic Effect?

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What Lessons can Entrepreneurs Learn from Gold Rushes, Pickaxes, and the Titanic Effect?

So what do gold rushes have to do with the Titanic? To start, gold rushes—both literal and figurative—have the potential to create significant wealth for a few lucky/opportunistic ones who jump on board. Windows of opportunity, whether to exploit a specific limited natural resource or to leverage a disruptive technology, create ample potential for significant wealth--but also a plethora of sunken ventures. The Titanic was a vehicle for many aspiring immigrants to achieve their own dream in the new land of the United States, a gold rush of sorts.

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What Does Academic Research Tell Startups about Advertising?

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What Does Academic Research Tell Startups about Advertising?

Since we are business school professors, one of the things we do is read and review academic research on business topics. Specifically, Kim is an associate editor for the Journal of Advertising Research. Of course, this journal focuses on what makes advertising effective. And the bulk of academic research is on TV advertising which might be beyond the reach of most startups. Kim also gets to vote on the “best” article of the year. So we thought we might review the best articles from 2019 and give you the highlights that are relevant to startup advertising. Here are top four facts about advertising we learned last year:

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The 10 Steps to Physically Starting a Business

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The 10 Steps to Physically Starting a Business

Someone who read our startup book, The Titanic Effect, reached out to us to say, “I think I understand the decisions I need to make. Now, I am ready to start my business. What are my first steps?” While our last blogpost shared how to develop a process for making complex decisions, this one is for those of you who are ready to actually start your business. So, here are your first 10 steps. In case that number intimidates you, they are interrelated and can be done concurrently. You are already working on another step while completing an earlier one. And we assume you already have the business idea. These are the steps to physically start that business. 

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Decisions, Decisions: How Startups Need to Approach Decision Making

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Decisions, Decisions: How Startups Need to Approach Decision Making

We recently started reading Steven Johnson’s book Farsighted: How We Make The Decisions That Matter The Most. The essence of the book is that complex decisions require a thoughtful and intentional process to increase the odds of having a favorable outcome… Here are three key elements to good decision making in the startup context:

 

The logic is very similar to our framework in The Titanic Effect. Making important decisions under conditions of uncertainty can have unanticipated consequences—what we call debtbergs in our framework—in a variety of areas including people, markets, technology/product, and strategy. Understanding the tradeoffs and implications of these decisions is important for complex strategic choices like those that startups make on a regular basis. We map out many of the common mistakes founding teams make that can subsequently sink their startups.

 

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Is the Startup Life a Sprint? A Marathon? Nope, it’s an Ironman

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Is the Startup Life a Sprint? A Marathon? Nope, it’s an Ironman

“It’s not a sprint—it’s a marathon!” We hear entrepreneurs with some experience use this phrase to caution new founders about going too fast too soon and burning out. We absolutely agree with part of this expression—starting a company is certainly not a sprint. But as endurance athletes ourselves, we would put a twist on this. Getting a startup going is a lot more like a multisport endurance event such as an Ironman than it is like a marathon. Why? Because it takes several different skillsets to launch a successful venture, not just one. Like a triathlon, there are at least three major categories of uncertainties founders must navigate—working with people, understanding the market, both competition and customers, and developing the product. We call these the human, marketing, and technical oceans.

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Startup Sales: Up and To the Right?

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Startup Sales: Up and To the Right?

Every startup pitch has a slide that shows a future revenue or sales forecast. Can you guess what the overall shape of that revenue growth looks like? If you thought “hockey stick,” then ding, ding, ding – you are right! For those that don’t know what a hockey stick sales growth chart looks like, check out the figure below. But, is that shape of the sales growth curve realistic for startups? It could be.

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A Principle and Two Numbers for Startups

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A Principle and Two Numbers for Startups

In honor of the Thanksgiving holiday, we saved this blogpost until Monday…

In the “little known facts” category about the Titanic, we thought we would share some seemingly random factoids that had an interactive effect to help sink the Titanic. It involves a principle and two numbers—I know, it sounds like an episode of the high school musical show “Glee” (but that would be PrinciPAL…).